Economic growth in the Asia-Pacific (Apac) will generally remain strong in 2024, especially in emerging markets (EMs), supporting sector outlooks across the region, said Fitch Ratings.
The ratings agency said it expects real gross domestic product (GDP) to expand by, or above, 5% in India, Indonesia, Philippines and Vietnam while China’s performance will still be strong by most other countries’ standards.
“Headwinds from slower Chinese growth, weak global demand and higher interest burden following the rise in interest rates over 2022 to 2023 will weigh on the performance for many sectors, but the bulk of our Apac sector outlooks for 2024 remain neutral,” it said in a statement on Wednesday.
Fitch Ratings sees diverging prospects for EM and developed market (DM) banking sectors.
The growth in Apac EMs, it said, should buoy loan demand and limit the potential adverse effects on asset quality from interest rates, which it believes have largely peaked across the region.
“The peaking of the rate cycle will affect Apac DM banking sectors more than those in EMs. We expect net interest margins (NIMs) and non-performing loan ratios to come under pressure in DMs in 2024, but the degree of weakening will generally be modest,” it added.
It also pointed out that slower economic growth, lower rates and the government’s adapting policy response will add to headwinds faced by several sectors in China, reflected in several deteriorating outlooks, notably for property developers and banks.
“Our outlooks for the Australian and New Zealand banking sectors and structured finance sectors remain deteriorating for 2024.
Our expectation is that the worsening in asset quality following higher interest rates will be most marked in these markets, being felt more in the first half of 2024 (1H2024) than 2H2024,” it said.
The ratings agency also noted that Sino-US tensions have eased recently, but expects relations to remain challenging, which will lead companies to pursue further supply-chain diversification to limit exposure to geopolitical risks.
“These trends could be a significant factor for outlooks in several sectors, particularly industrial and technology, and may also influence investment and growth prospects for some sovereigns such as Singapore, South Korea, Thailand and Vietnam,” it
said.
Fitch sees debt ratios rising in 2024 for about half of the Fitch-rated Apac sovereigns, due to high borrowing costs and mostly modest fiscal deficit reduction plans, despite solid economic growth rates. Source: The edge malaysia
